Consensus: An instrument for human judgment

§ 01

Every consequential decision is a forecast wearing different clothes. Almost none are written down, none are scored, and nobody can tell you who in the room has been right before.

Consensus is a social prediction market where credits are bought and never sold. Removing the cash-out removes the securities regime, the listing committee, and the ceiling on what may be asked, so the questions can be about a lease, a release train, or whether a friend actually makes the airport by six.

What accumulates underneath is the asset: a conviction-weighted, socially-attributed, reason-annotated, outcome-resolved record of what people believed was about to happen. The product is the sensor. The corpus is the business, and it cannot be back-filled by anyone who was not running the sensor at the time.

§ 02

How to see it.

Figure 1: A survey returns a dot. A market returns the line. One question over one hundred and twenty days. Belief is a trajectory, and the moments it moves fastest are the moments worth paying for.

Figure 2: The corpus compounds, and cannot be back-filled. Each layer of annotation multiplies the value of the record. Nobody can go back and ask what people believed before the outcome was known.

§ 03

How it works.

Anyone can ask

No listing committee. The long tail is the corpus.

Stakes are sized

Five credits and five hundred are different statements.

Friends are the room

Every stake carries who was watching.

Everything resolves

A question with no answer is worthless to us.

The crowd audits truth

Stakers can overturn whoever declared. Trust is a field.

Nothing pays out

The exit does not exist to be regulated.

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Consensus is an operating company of CN Solar Labs, live in market today. Detailed metrics are shared directly with qualified counterparties.